Who can save car dealers?

"My car was sent for maintenance and found to be being demolished."

"There is only one store left for Dongfeng Peugeot in Nanjing, and there is only one dealer for Changan Mazda."

"Skoda's 4S store was withdrawn from the network and replaced with a used car showroom. Even the LOGO was not removed in time."

For a while now, social media comments have been cluttered and focused on the fact that auto 4S shops are on their way.

In Shanghai, at the center of the storm, the loss of new car sales in April has become a spectacle since the founding of the People's Republic of China.In Beijing, where the epidemic is under stable control, the storefront has also lost more than half of its customers.

How do dealers live?

In extreme cases, there are already cases where car companies help pay wages.

Which dealers are most likely to fail?Which dealers are not dead or have a future?How many casualties will each store suffer from the pain of channel transformation?

After the purchase tax was halved, what was the reason behind some dealers' taking back the preferential treatment?

"It's no exaggeration, we lost more than 95% of our customers"

"Brother, look at the car, look at the car!"

Since May, Fu Yan has started to make small videos on social platforms.

The content of the video is all about "going up and running without customers".In his own words, "For the time being, there is less sales and more jokes."

Fu Yan is a salesman of a 4S store in Beijing. He was looking forward to the fresh and new energyindicatorsin Beijing on May 26 .

With the rise of the epidemic in Beijing during the May 1st period, the situation has turned. The store has been closed for nearly a month, and no news of resumption of work has been received as of press time.

Fu Yan told Fenghuang.com that during the closure period, the store will be on duty: there will be no more than ten people in the store every day, and shifts will be changed every two days.

"We can take guests to see the car space in the warehouse or come to the door for a test drive, but there are no guests."

"Without customers, there is no delivery. In addition to being unable to make money, the cost loss caused by idle personnel and rent lost in vain recently exceeded 800,000 yuan," Fu Yan said.

"It is no exaggeration to say that we have reduced our customer base by at least 95% during the outbreak in Beijing," said an ideal car salesman.

Salespeople from more brands in the Beijing area described similar situations to Fenghuang.com.

Qu Xin, the sales director of a dealership that specializes in Volkswagen brands in Shenzhen, introduced their current situation to Fenghuang.com: In terms of monthly sales, ordinary brands have been cut by half, and dominant brands have been reduced by 1/3.In terms of passenger flow, it decreased by 1/3.Complementary to each other, the transaction rate is also decreasing.

Qu Xin said that the situation is not "acute", and it has been such a rhythm since last year.

At the same time as delivery cools down, cost pressures are highlighted.

"Because of the fear of loss of personnel, the wages of employees do not dare to change much. The rent of the store plus water and electricity costs, labor costs, and payment to the group, etc." Qu Xin said that the monthly operating cost of the store is about 2 million.

"The sales volume is not up, the after-salesoutput valueand comprehensive gross profit are reduced, and in short, it is a loss of money."

Automobile production and transportation are gradually recovering, but it will take some time for automobile consumption to fully recover, and the automobile circulation industry is still in a recession.In May, the dealer inventory warning index was 56.8%, down 9.6% from the previous month, still above the line of prosperity and decline.

"Affected by the general sentiment of the economic fundamentals, everyone is afraid to spend money. Unless it is just in need, who would consider buying a car?" View.

The most difficult dealer: to avoid "one loss and one loss", the brand helps the 4S shop to pay wages

How difficult is it for dealers?

"I chatted with friends in a certain brand area, and they also started to help 4S stores pay wages, which dramatically achieved 'direct sales'. Because if the 4S stores can't survive and withdraw from the network, car companies will not even have a chance to turn around, so there is no It is necessary to save it or not. At the same time, there have been news in several aftermarkets in the past two days that about 20% of the channel employees may be laid off. The consumption contraction is not only the new car, but also the after-sales, even the customers who enter the store after the after-sales, The maintenance frequency and cost are significantly decreasing," said Sun Shaojun, founder of Chefans.

Sun Shaojun told Fenghuang.com that this kind of "salary help" type of rescue is the highest level of the current crisis index, and it is also a very rare case. Strictly speaking, it is a kind of store subsidy, which is used for short-term (1-2 months) For emergencies, the subsidy amount varies from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands per store across the country.

According to public data, due to the difficulty of the industry chain, 9 car companies will disappear in 2021, and 11 dealer groups will be integrated and reorganized.

Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Dealers Association, described the current situation of this group as: China's auto dealer network is undergoing a reshuffle, with different brand dealer networks advancing and retreating.

Zhu Huarong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Changan Automobile, has done a set of data analysis: in 2021, there are 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market, of which 34 brands have monthly sales of less than 1,000 units. He believes that in the next 3-5 years, 80% of China's fuel vehicles will be sold Brands "shut down and turn."

The profit of new cars of traditional fuel vehicles has been continuously compressed, and even the phenomenon of price inversion has occurred, which means that the survival pressure of 4S stores has risen sharply.

As the consumption expectations and consumer confidence in the auto market have been hit multiple times, the result of this sentiment being transmitted to the dealer market is that the elimination of dealer stores is intensifying.

"There are three types of dealers that are prone to failure," said Sun Shaojun. First of all, those with weak brands will be out first, that is, brand dealers that represent third- and fourth-tier brands and rely on an upward market to survive (such as GAC Fick, GAC Mitsubishi, Guanxi, etc.) to etc.).

Secondly, for example, a brand is represented by multiple dealers in a city (region), and this kind of multi-angle distribution relationship can exist in the overall market to achieve a balance of losses.Once the market base becomes low, the weakest dealers will be out of the game, which is more obvious in Wenzhou.

The third category is the dealers close to the epidemic area. The long-term closure of stores and no operation will cause a lot of consumption to the stores, making them unable to support them.

"When the entire market pie shrinks, the weakest will be out of the game," Sun Shaojun said. There are two ways to implement rescue.The first is to cancel the assessment, so that 4S stores do not have to sell cars at a loss, and at the same time reduce inventory, so that they can have a chance to breathe. All brands are doing this.The second is to give subsidies to help them tide over the difficulties, which some brands are already doing.

The dealer OS record under the "60 billion policy": how to reduce losses

On May 23, the executive meeting of the State Council brought the news that the purchase tax of some passenger cars will be reduced by 60 billion yuan in stages.The auto industry is looking forward to the implementation of the detailed rules, which can achieve an obvious positive pull in the short term.

The detailed rules will be finalized on May 31: For the 2.0-liter and below displacement multipliers whose purchase date is from June 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 and the bicycle price (excluding VAT) does not exceed 300,000 yuan. Vehicle purchase tax will be halved.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation ,predictedthat the policy of halving the purchase tax will have a stimulating effect on automobile consumption: it may bring an increase of 2 million.

"Through the implementation of the 60 billion car purchase tax reduction measures, it is a policy guide for consumers to upgrade their consumption, promote the restoration of consumer confidence among mainstream consumer groups, and effectively reduce the purchasing pressure of mainstream consumer groups, which will inevitably effectively drive automobile consumption to the normal track." , said Cui Dongshu.

The macro policy was set up, and various car companies and brands quickly followed suit.

Only a few hours after the implementation of the rules, several brands such as Changan Automobile, Fengshen, and Jietu immediately responded to the policy and superimposed their own preferential posters.

For example, Jietu Xianxian has put out the "purchase tax clearing 0" card: the purchase tax is half paid by the state and half by Jietu, and a subsidy of up to 5,000 yuan for cars going to the countryside is also superimposed.

In addition to the slogan of "0 purchase tax", Fengshen Motor also expressed the promotion policy of "maximum subsidy of 11,300 yuan, 0 down payment / 0 interest / five-year long-term, and ten-year unlimited mileage warranty". The marketing theme slogan is very sincere. : Sincerely one billion Fengshen plus code.

Changan Automobile promises that "some models enjoy full purchase tax exemption or a maximum reduction of 120% (including the national tax reduction), and also promises to receive car purchase financial consumption coupons.

Subsequently, more than a dozen brands (or some models) such as Dongfeng Nissan, Haval, Chery, and Geely all caught up with this wave.

In stark contrast with brand car companies is the attitude of dealers.

On June 1, it was reported on the Internet that dealers such as Mercedes-Benz, in response to the policy of halving the purchase tax, adjusted the product price or cancelled the original discount.

In this regard, Qu Xin said that since he heard of the purchase tax reduction and exemption plan, the dealers have already planned to adjust the price and take back the in-store discount.

"Many customers will definitely not understand. They have read the previous quotations, and they expect that they will save a lot of money after the preferential policy blessing. But in fact, the operation of the dealers has been losing money before, especially the new cars basically do not make money. At present, this The unpleasant approach is also due to the consideration of pulling back profits, and it can also be imagined that a certain degree of difficulty in closing transactions”, Qu Xin said.

Final Words: The Tornado of the Times

Auto dealerships are receding at a steady rate.

The latest data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that from January to April this year, nearly 1,400 4S stores in China have withdrawn from the network.According to this data, about 11 4S stores are closed and withdrawn from the network every day.

"Under the epidemic and many comprehensive pressures, after the market is fully competitive, car companies with low technology and management levels under the protection of local governments have closed down one after another, and some dealers' capital chains have been broken, etc. The reasons for the continuous decrease in the number of dealers."

Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy VehicleTechnology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Vocational and Technical College, told Phoenix.com that the focus of traditional car companies has shifted to new energy vehicles. They generally use new brand names and new online sales, such as Volkswagen ID. In the experience store in the shopping mall, "this actually makes a diversion of the traditional 4S store. In the past, many traditional dealers liked to build stores in the suburbs of the city. Compared with the experience store in the shopping mall, the inconvenient transportation is also the reason for the reduction of traditional dealer customers."

The crisis of the 4S store is not a temporary crisis.

In 2020, the number of national brand authorized dealers declined for the first time. The number of dealers exceeded 28,000 that year, and the network scale for the year was reduced by 5.8%.4,000 stores have been withdrawn from the network, and 2,000 new stores have been added at the same time.At that time, the calculation of 4S stores closing stores and withdrawing from the network was also about 11 per day.

In 2021, although the terminal sales volume in the market will reach 26.275 million units, an increase of 3.8%, showing the first positive sales momentum since 2018, but dealers are still under pressure.

Zhang Xiang said that due to the convenience of actual operation, the direct sales or new retail model may be more adopted, and 4S stores will take on more functions of maintenance service centers in the future.At present, traditional car companies are actively trying new models when they engage in online live broadcasts and enter e-commerce platforms.

So will the traditional dealership model still exist?

"A simple logic is that no matter where the car is placed, whether it is a direct sales model or a dealership model, it requires sales reception and costs," said Sun Shaojun.

"Maybe car companies will start the next model: some brands guide sales by themselves, and some brands are managed by dealers," Zhang Xiang said.

The panning of dealers this time may be forcing the rational configuration of the business model of the car industry.

(Fu Yan and Qu Xin are pseudonyms in the text)