How did auto stocks "become a demon"?

When is the most recent time for automobile practitioners or investors who pay attention to the automobile sector to be free from wealth?There is no doubt that it must have bought NIO's stock at a price of $1.19 per share on October 31, 2019, and it rose to the highest point of $66.99 per share on January 31, 2021.

In fact, the US stock market, including NIO, Tesla and other car companies, is still a normal fluctuation in the unlimited ups and downs.If the U.S. stock market is a little far from Chinese investors, there are also many stocks that can make people "get rich overnight" in the A-share market.For example, in the past few years, the concept of masks, the stall economy, the concept of Huawei, etc., as long as they are stained, they can rise.

In fact, in the auto sector of the domestic stock market, there are also real bull stocks.For example, riding the east wind ofnew energy, battery manufacturers represented by Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, etc., as well as car manufacturers such as BYD.However, there are also many demon stocks that increase several times in a month or a year, but most of them are speculative and speculation, and very few of them really rely on business ability and profits.

Last year, some institutions counted many demon stocks in the A-share market, including many related to the auto industry.The reasons for "becoming a demon" are different, such as "double carbon", cold chain, reformation, new energy, etc.The most famous is Zotye Auto, a vehicle manufacturer whose lowest price is 1.14 yuan and the highest is 9.94 yuan, an increase of 872% in 10 months.

From Bitcoin to the Metaverse, the market has never lacked concepts in the past two years.Therefore, many institutions havepredictedseveral popular new concepts in 2022, including digital currency, pension, vocational education, large infrastructure and so on.At first glance, the correlation with the automotive sector is not high, but this does not prevent the reappearance of automotive "demon stocks" in recent months.

hype, cash out

The recent "demon king" in the automotive sector is none other than Zhongtong Bus.The data shows that from May 13 to June 1, Zhongtong Bus has increased the daily limit for 13 consecutive trading days in 14 trading days, with a cumulative increase of 268.7%.As the company's share price rose, the number of shareholders increased from about 44,200 to about 129,900, a nearly doubled increase.

The fundamental reason for Zhongtong Bus's road to "become a demon" is the hype of the concept of nucleic acid detection.On May 5, Zhongtong Bus revealed that it has sold nucleic acid detection vehicles, and on May 9, it clearly stated on the investor relations interactive platform that "the products currently sold are: 12-meter and 13-meter nucleic acid detection vehicles. Volume sales have been achieved from 2021."

But in fact, from January to April, Zhongtong Bus sold 20 nucleic acid testing vehicles in total, with a revenue of 61.7097 million. The revenue from this product accounted for 5.39% of the company's operating income; production was determined based on sales, and there was no inventory.As of May 30, 18 nucleic acid testing vehicles have been ordered, with an estimated revenue of 45.78 million yuan.It is these 38 nucleic acid testing vehicles that tripled the market value of Zhongtong Bus.

How about the actual business capability of Zhongtong Bus?In 2021, the company will sell 10,048 vehicles, with an operating income of 4.587 billion yuan and a net profit of 220 million yuan.For comparison, Yutong, the leader in the bus industry, will sell 41,828 vehicles in 2021, with an operating income of 23.233 billion yuan and a net profit of 614 million yuan.

Even more tragic data is that in the past five years, Zhongtong Bus's net profit has grown negatively for five consecutive years, and 2021 will usher in its first loss since its listing 22 years ago.Coincidentally, on May 31, the second largest shareholder of Zhongtong Bus announced a centralized bidding to reduce its holdings.According to the number of reductions and the closing price on the day of the announcement, a total of 177 million yuan was cashed out this time.

Let's move our attention from automobile enterprises to automobile "dealers". It is Tellus Group. Its stock Tellus A started on May 25 and recorded a daily limit of 9 in 10 days.On June 6, the "Tiandi" was launched, but on June 7, the "Tiandi" was staged, with an increase of 103.66% in the past 20 days.

According to the data, Tellus Group is mainly engaged in automobile sales, automobile inspection and maintenance and sales of accessories, property leasing and services, and jewelry wholesale and retail.The auto segment business includes Huari Company and Zonfu Tellus Company, and the total revenue of auto sales, auto inspection, maintenance and accessories sales accounts for 47.99% of its total revenue.

Industry insiders analyzed that Intelli stepped on the two concepts of "state-owned enterprise reform" and "automobiles to the countryside", thus attracting hot money to stir up the concept.On May 31, Tellus A issued an announcement that Yuanzhifuhai, a shareholder holding 11.62% of the shares, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 25.8635 million shares.According to the estimated amount of reduction and the closing price on the day of the announcement, the above-mentioned shareholders have reduced their holdings and cashed out more than 500 million yuan.

Is there anything crazier than the two stocks above?The answer is yes, and it's more violent.The most bullish stock, Haiqi Group, has 14 consecutive Yangs and won 9 consecutive boards, with a cumulative increase of 135%, and it may continue to extend the daily limit.You know, this is a company that has been losing money for two consecutive years, and it is in a declining industry.

In 2021, the operating income of Haiqi Group will be composed of automobile passenger transport accounting for 68.35%, automobile comprehensive service accounting for 12.99%, and passenger station operation accounting for 9.04%.The annual report shows that Haiqi Group will have a net loss of 71.78 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 26.5 million yuan.According to the first quarterly report of 2022, Haiqi Group lost 16.29 million yuan in the first quarter.

Why soar?Mainly thanks to the concept of duty-free and the uniqueness of the Hainan market.On the news, on May 27, Haiqi Group announced that it plans to issue shares and pay cash to purchase 100% of the shares of Hailv Duty Free, and Hailv Duty Free’s main business is the retail of duty-free goods.

Generally, when a new concept appears, it is easy to appear demon stocks.But after the concept came out, the company's performance could not keep up, either the concept fell into freezing point, or the company's stock returned to normal.Of course, for capital, the operating ability and life and death of an enterprise are not important, but a tool to make money.

market value, value

Demons are essentially an abnormal state.However, companies are also inseparable from the power of the stock market to maintain the continuous development of hematopoietic and blood transfusion. Therefore, the emergence of bull stocks in normal times is the performance of healthy car companies.However, among the well-known mainstream passenger car companies, the stock prices of traditional car companies have always been difficult to form a major breakthrough, but the car companies related to new energy have become stubborn.

This reflects not only the direction of capital, but also a part of the "concept".But in turn, traditional car companies are also responsible for their investors. Not only companies need to make profits, but investors also need returns.Therefore, when BYD's stock price has been soaring, Great Wall Motors, which relies on traditional manufacturing and sales, has also set an example.

A few days ago, Great Wall Motors issued an announcement showing that the company repurchased more than 13 million Hong Kong shares of the company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the same day, with an average repurchase price of HK$15.20 per share, with a total value of about HK$200 million.The purpose of this repurchase by Great Wall Motors is to effectively safeguard the legitimate interests of the majority of investors, enhance investors' confidence in the company's future development prospects, and enhance the recognition of the company's value.

And this is just one of the means of "mutual benefit". When electrification becomes a trend, new energy car companies, including NIO, which is "listed in three places", have higher stock prices and market value than traditional car companies.Therefore, traditional car companies are also carrying out a variety of listing methods, including the mixed-ownership reform of new energy subsidiaries such as Changan and GAC.

However, the auto industry is very different from other industries, and the stock price and market value are only one of the manifestations of whether a company is strong.Just recently, the world's new issue of the market value rankings of auto companies has been released.Among the top ten car companies, only Tesla and BYD arenew energy carcompanies.Of the remaining eight automakers, two are from Japan, four are from Europe and two are from the United States.

However, among the 10-20, Great Wall Motor, SAIC Group, Weilai and Ideal Automobile have all been shortlisted.As a national pillar industry, car companies must focus on development, whether it is traditional automobile business or electrification business.In the traditional auto industry, Chinese auto companies have shown great tenacity, and at the same time, they have begun to catch up with Japanese, South Korean, European, American and other auto companies in electrification.

The value of Chinese auto companies is not only reflected in the market value, and the development of China's auto industry is not limited to China.Any strong country in the world's auto industry, one of its strong signs is that in addition to being sold in the domestic market, the cars it produces can also sell well in the world and become a car brand in the minds of consumers around the world.Today's Chinese auto industry is developing rapidly.

According to the export data of the General Administration of Customs, it is estimated that the annual export volume of automobiles in 2022 will be close to 3 million vehicles, and it is only a matter of time before the export volume surpasses Germany.There is also a view that if the export growth rate can return to more than 50% in the second half of the year, it is entirely possible for China to surpass Germany in terms of auto exports this year and become the second largest auto exporter in the world.

German media believe that the global auto manufacturing industry has reached a critical moment, and it appears that China is in a dominant position.In the past, China's auto industry was also called "big but not strong". Now, with the development of electrification and intelligence, the future Chinese auto industry will rewrite the pattern of the global auto industry.