U.S. new car sales in 2022 may hit a 10-year low amid supply chain woes

U.S. auto salesare expected to fall 17.3% in 2022 to the lowest level in a decadeas semiconductor shortages and other supply chain issues continue to hamper production,media reported .

Research firm Cox Automotive loweredits forecast for U.S. new vehicle salesin 2022 to 14.4 million.This is the second time this year that Cox has lowered its U.S. new-car sales forecast from 16 million.

Although Cox lowered itsforecast, the agency said the decline in auto sales masked economic conditions as the job market and consumer demand remained strong."We don't think a recession is inevitable," said Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke."There's still pent-up demand in U.S. retail. Some Americans can't get what they want." U.S. new vehicle inventories have risen so far this year, but are still only about 25 days old.Before the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. auto dealers had an average of nearly 70 days of inventory.

The only caveat, according to Smoke, is that concerns about inflation and a drop in consumer confidence could slow the economy, with "consumers appearing to think we're in a recession."

Image credit: Tesla

Cox also predicted that GM would surpass Toyota Motor North America in U.S. sales in the second quarter, retaking the position as the best-selling U.S. automaker.In the second quarter, GM sold 575,911 U.S. vehicles, up 13% sequentially but down 16% year over year.Toyota will sell 543,819 new vehicles in the U.S., up 5.7% sequentially but down 21% year over year.

In the second quarter of this year, only Ford and Tesla's U.S. sales are expected to grow year-over-year.Cox said Ford expects to sell 496,248 new vehicles in the U.S., up 15.6% sequentially and up 5.1% year over year.Tesla's U.S. sales in the second quarter are expected to rise 90% year over year.Tesla's U.S. market share is expected to more than double to 4.0 percent in the first half of this year, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year.