Tesla's second-quarter deliveries may be less than 300,000 vehicles

According to foreign media reports, Tesla’s Shanghai plant was suspended for several weeks in the second quarter due to the epidemic, coupled with the slow ramp-up ofoutputat new plants in Berlin and Texas, Tesla reported a record quarter of deliveries in the past two years. It is expected to be history.

Image credit: Tesla

Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 2,950.78 million vehicles in the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.With its Shanghai plant shut down for weeks due to the outbreak, several analysts have lowered their delivery forecasts for Tesla even further, to about 250,000 vehicles.Not only is this below Tesla's record 310,048 deliveries at the end of the first quarter, it would also be the first sequential decline in deliveries since the first quarter of 2020.

Tesla has delivered record deliveries every quarter since the third quarter of 2020, weathering the pandemic and supply chain disruption better than most automakers.China has played a major role in the rapid increase in Tesla's vehicle production, and Musk has praised Chinese factory workers "still at work at 3 a.m."

However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the outbreak in Shanghai caused more severe production disruptions than Musk had expected in the second quarter of this year, reducing production at his Shanghai plant by about 70,000 vehicles.

Musk said Tesla's supply chain problems are not over, and keeping the factory running is still an issue."The key is how much output is falling at Tesla's Shanghai plant and whether its Fremont, Calif., plant can help support output," said Garrett Nelson, research analyst at CFRA.Nelson expects sales to rebound strongly in the second half of the year as Tesla ramps up production at its Shanghai plant as measures to contain the coronavirus are eased.

However, Gene Munster, managing partner of venture capital firm Loup Ventures, was cautious about Tesla's prospects, saying Tesla and other tech companies would still face a difficult third quarter, citing the risk of a recession.

Tesla shares have fallen 37% since the beginning of April amid the Musk-Twitter deal and the pandemic.On June 30, Tesla shares fell 0.5% to $682.02.