The number of new energy resources has exceeded 10 million, and the aftermarket projects are iteratively accelerated?

In 2021, the number of cars in China will exceed 300 million and surpass that of the United States. While vehicles are becoming more and more popular, the safety of the automotive field will receive further attention, and the increase innew energywill also accelerate the iteration of the project.

01. Safe logic iteration

Back in 2000, the state introduced policies to encourage passenger cars to enter ordinary families. The Chinese passenger car market ushered in an explosion, and motorcycles were gradually banned as a mainstream private vehicle; as of December 2021, the number of passenger cars in my country It exceeded 302 million, surpassing the United States to become the world's largest market in terms of ownership.

During these 20 years of rapid growth, the popularity of automobiles has brought a qualitative improvement to production efficiency.However, car owners' perception of cars is still at a preliminary stage compared to Europe and the United States.

In the case that many ordinary families in Europe and the United States can maintain themselves, our vehicle maintenance is still mainly solved by auto repair shops.

Therefore, when car owners buy a car, the priority is not the internal performance of the vehicle, but more attention to the brand, appearance, space, and whether the seat is leather and other surface things.

In fact, AEB (Automatic Braking System), ABS (Anti-lock Braking System), EBD (Brake Force Distribution), DSC (Body Stability Control), TSC (Traction Control), TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring) and other passive safety projects That's the first thing a car should focus on.For example, 80% of major accidents are caused by tire puncture, and after the United States mandates TPMS, the major accidents caused by tire puncture are directly reduced by 76%. This is the effect of technology safety on car safety.

However, with the continuous increase in the number of vehicle ownership and the continuous increase in the average vehicle age in my country (currently it has exceeded 6 years), more and more car owners realize that the first element of the vehicle is safety performance, and the country is also following the trend and continuously promoting safety-related mandatory Matching.

From January 1, 2020, the Passenger Vehicle TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System) Mandatory Support Act came into effect. The Act was enacted in 2017 and came into effect after a three-year transition period.This means that all new cars that are produced and sold off the assembly line must be equipped with TPMS, otherwise they will not be registered on the road. It can be seen that the country is paying more and more attention to car safety.

Although Europe and the United States are many years earlier than us (US legislation in 2005/European legislation in 2009), compared with my country's short auto industry cycle, it is already a big improvement.Every regulation will bring new changes in business logic. Just as the country spares no effort to promotenew energy vehicles, safety maintenance will gradually become an important part of the aftermarket in the future.

02. Iteration of maintenance project logic

Affected by international factors, oil prices have been raised for 11 consecutive rounds, and even No. 92 gasoline has entered the era of nearly ten yuan.This intuitive increase in costs brings a very strong tingling feeling to consumers.

The author has learned that the sales of fuel vehicles have fallen sharply. The sales of a Volkswagen have plummeted from more than 100,000 monthly sales to 20,000, while BYD's new energy sales in June exceeded 130,000, and it is estimated that the annual sales will exceed 1.5 million.

The fluctuation of oil prices has accelerated the rhythm of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy sources.The author shared last year that the growth rate of new energy will obviously bring about an iteration of the maintenance logic in the post-market - the original engine-related maintenance will gradually decrease, and the tire-related maintenance and chassis maintenance projects will increase sharply.

Tire maintenance and chassis maintenance have become the commonality of fuel and new energy.In the future, maintenance shops should pay attention to tire-related maintenance and chassis-related maintenance while paying attention to engine maintenance.

The main focus of chassis-related maintenance is shock absorption, swing arm, ball head inspection and replacement. Considering that China’s urbanization is close to 61%, even the road conditions of rural roads are getting better and better, and more likely to be in the ball head and part in the future. swing arm.

Tire-related maintenance may become similar maintenance-related, because the higher the urbanization process and the better the road conditions, the more mileage you drive, and tire wear is inevitable.At the same time, tire-related maintenance includes brake pads and brake discs. With the mandatory matching of TPMS, there will be more opportunities for tire pressure sensors (battery life of 3-5 years), valves, etc.

Therefore, the author judges that tires and related items will gradually replace oil maintenance and become the pillar maintenance items of stores. Stores should predict and prepare in advance.As for the three power projects such asnew energy batteries, it is unlikely that they will end up in unauthorized stores in the short term.

03. What are the expectations for the aftermarket?

Affected by the epidemic this year, the entire Chinese economy has stopped and gone, capital has cooled, and several leading platforms in the aftermarket have moved forward in a low-key manner.

With the scale ceiling of the so-called wearing parts, the special second-class wearing parts of the head platform and the whole vehicle parts category have broken the ceiling, and the whole aftermarket is filled with a sense of depression.

However, the author would like to say that the aftermarket is relatively much better when compared horizontally with industries such as catering, hotel, and film and television.The author judges that there are two certain directions in the aftermarket: one is the irreversible chain trend of maintenance stores, and the other is the digitization of traditional chains.

The author was optimistic about the chain trend three years ago.The 626,000 maintenance stores in the Chinese market are scattered in 2,843 county-level divisions. Due to the influence of new car manufacturers, traditional car companies have successively cancelled the 4S model.With the disintegration of the 4S system, at least 3-5 nationwide chain systems are needed in the aftermarket; refer to chain companies in the hotel industry such as Huazhu, Home Inn, Qitian, etc.The author personally experienced the maintenance of a tiger engine in Hangzhou, and recharged a major member of a cat to experience the replacement of the brake system.

So far, several consensuses on chaining have been formed:

First, the visual elements of the appearance are unified, including brand signs, LOGO logos and in-store tooling.

Second, comparing the 4S stores in the experience, the author sees the convenience and transparency of the chain, including the unified settlement of the APP, the transparency of the package price system (separate accounting for accessories and working hours), and real-time viewing of construction reminders.

Third, the construction process is transparent: in the waiting lounge, the whole transparent glass wall can watch the construction process, and a cat can also view the live construction video through the APP.Of course, there are also shortcomings. For example, the price of a certain tiger is close to that of a 4S store except for maintenance; a certain cat staff has a certain degree of marketing.These are understandable, even in the 4S store, there will be these problems.

But the author sees that many car owners who have broken away from the 4S system have found trust and a sense of control in these chain brands, while roadside stores are losing the favor of customers.The author believes that with the improvement of their internal system in the future, the chain will definitely go better and better.

Another way is to digitize the traditional aftermarket chain.For example, the chain trend just mentioned is essentially the digitization of offline and online services. With the upward transmission of the chain, the digitization of traditional supply chains, the digitization of single products, and the digitization of traditional diagnostic tools will all have a large market in the future. space.